Recent Survey of 723 Epidemiologists on Pandemic

 

 IMPLICATIONS FOR CHURCH AND WORSHIP 

Summary

While small group events, (a bible study with a dozen persons) or even a larger group event (such as a choir rehearsal) are safe if everyone is vaccinated, church worship services are risky (only 8% of epidemiologists are now willing to attend them) because the number of new cases per day is still high and many people are not yet vaccinated.  Vaccines are not one hundred percent effective; the higher the number of unvaccinated persons, and the higher the incidence in the community, the higher the risk of infection even for a vaccinated person and for their transmission of the virus to others who are at even greater risk. Vaccinated persons at high risk and/or caretakers of persons at high risk should pay attention to what epidemiologists are doing and saying.

The New York Times Survey

Of the 723 epidemiologists who participated in the survey, 35 percent work for governments. The rest are mostly academics. The questionnaire was distributed to two major professional groups, the Society for Epidemiologic Research and the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, as well as some individual scientists. The survey was done from April 28 to May 10. Not all epidemiologists answered every question 

With Hugs and Haircuts, U.S. Epidemiologists Start Returning (Carefully!) to Everyday Life

“Overall, the epidemiologists’ advice was to hold on to most precautions just a little bit longer, particularly when it comes to indoor activities or those with large groups of strangers.” 

Most epidemiologists (74%) hiked or gathered outdoors with a friend, and saw doctors for non-urgent appointments (64%).  The persons in these situations were safe and reliable.

Epidemiologists said that vaccinated people should continue to limit the number of people they see especially indoors since vaccines aren’t one hundred percent effective.  

Less than half (43%) of the respondents interacted outside within 6 feet without a mask  Even fewer hugged or shook hands when greeting a friend (39%), or visited an older relative or friend in his/her home (35%).  In all these situations vaccine status is less predictable  

The more people that are in a space, the more chances the vaccine has to fail. This is especially true if the vaccine status of other people in the space is unknown.

Almost all the respondents stayed away from gyms (15%), weddings and funerals (10%), church services (8%), and sporting events, concerts and plays (6%).

These epidemiologists were even concerned about outdoor events, if the crowds are large and uncontrollable such as protests and concerts. They advised against attending such events. 

723 Epidemiologists on When and How the U.S. Can Fully Return to Normal

“Although government mandates are lifting, these experts say the pandemic won’t really end nationally until more people, including children, are vaccinated.”

The true end of the pandemic, when it is safe to return to most activities without precautions, will need at least 70 percent of Americans of all ages to be vaccinated. Epidemiologists think this will happen, but not as quickly as many Americans want.

The respondents agree that Americans’ reluctance to accept vaccines is the biggest threat to ending the pandemic, along with the arrival of new variants and people’s unwillingness to observe social restrictions in the meantime.

They were asked about masks before the new C.D.C guidance. “In particular, they say that masks are a norm that should continue. More than 80 percent of them said people should continue to wear masks when indoors with strangers for at least another year, and outdoors in crowds.”

The epidemiologists took a long term general health perspective. They hoped that people would have to travel for work less often. They wanted expanded grocery delivery and takeout restaurant options to continue, as well as tele-health visits for routine medical appointments. Many buildings have improved their ventilation systems, more upgrades will pay off when it comes to other respiratory diseases. They also hoped people would keep habits that make them healthier in general: avoiding things like going to work when sick, shaking hands and even blowing out birthday candles. In other words they don’t want to return to the old normal but want a new healthier normal.

Hundreds of Epidemiologists Expected Mask-Wearing in Public for at Least a Year

This survey was taken before the new C.D.C guidance. In the survey, 80 percent said they thought Americans would need to wear masks in public indoor places for at least another year. Just 5 percent said people would no longer need to wear masks indoors by this summer.

“Unless the vaccination rates increase to 80 or 90 percent over the next few months, we should wear masks in large public indoor settings,”

In large crowds outdoors, like at a concert or protest, 88 percent of the epidemiologists said it was necessary even for fully vaccinated people to wear masks

One-quarter of the epidemiologists in the survey said they thought people would need to continue wearing masks in certain settings indefinitely, and some said they planned to continue to wear them in places like airplanes or concert halls, or during the winter virus season.

CONCLUSIONS

 

Epidemiologists are focusing upon risk assessment.  They understand that vaccines are not one hundred percent effective. As long as the virus is active in any area, safety urges us to stay away from the unvaccinated especially if we are going to be with them in enclosed spaces for more a few minutes. Safety also encourages us to use masks and keep social distance as long as the virus is active and we are encountering unvaccinated persons. 

MY OPINION

Healthy vaccinated persons in the workforce may decide that the risk of becoming infected is sufficiently low, and that they are unlikely to be hospitalized, or die if they become infected. They may already be interacting with many unvaccinated persons. Therefore a new interaction, such as going to church, may not be adding much more risk. 

On the other hand the vaccinated elderly who can avoid interacting with unvaccinated persons should decide that is is worthwhile to follow epidemiologists and protect themselves against any infection and the unknows of new viral strains and long term Covid effects which can occur even in those who have not been hospitalized.  

Worship Attendance 

In ending the dispensation, the Ohio bishops have said “As has always been the case, those who have a serious reason are exempt from attending Mass on Sundays and Holy Days of Obligation (Catechism of the Catholic Church, 2181). This includes those who are ill, have significant health risk factors or care for someone who is immuno-compromised or ill, as well as those who have significant fear or anxiety of contracting the coronavirus in a large group of persons.”

Vaccinated elderly and medically vulnerable persons should not attend church services as long as the virus continues to be active in the surrounding county and metropolitan area. Worship services involve extensive and perhaps intensive contact with unvaccinated adults and children.

What is a low level of viral activity?  If there has been an average of ten new cases per day in a county that means there are 140 known infectious people if one assumes the virus is infectious for 14 days.  Assuming there are ten infectious cases for every one that is reported, that means 1400 infectious cases in the county. Recently Lake County fell to an average of about ten new cases per day for about two weeks. However recently we have experienced twenty new cases for several days. That could eventually translate in 2800 possible cases. I have decided my criteria for safe return to church will be zero cases for thirty days. I will monitor new cases, and pause church going if new cases emerge. 

It would be better to use Metropolitan Cleveland data. We are an airline transportation hub. Some of the first cases here came from persons who had attended a political conference in Washington, D.C. We could easily get new variant cases from people who have traveled Many people who live in Lake County work in Cleveland. 

Livestreaming of parish worship is essential for maintaining our relationship to parishes rather than becoming dependent upon distant worship sites. Since parishes will always have homebound members, livestreaming of all worship services should become a permanent aspect of parish life. The audio and video of the livestreaming should be of high quality. Celebrants should greet and acknowledge the virtual as well as the physical participants. 

Social Networks

As long as the virus is active in county, and metropolitan area it is important for the vaccinated elderly to confine our social activity to networks of vaccinated individuals. Socializing with unvaccinated individuals, especially indoors at close distances and without a mask, entails risk. Hopefully parishes will assist us by providing activities and programs restricted to the vaccinated and help us to develop and maintaining networks of vaccinated persons. 

Unvaccinated Persons

Epidemiologists say that the unvaccinated represent the largest threat to ending the pandemic. As long as the virus continues to multiple around the world, it will generate more variants that are likely to be spread more quickly. The more quickly a virus spreads the higher must be the percentage of vaccinated people to contain the virus. The more variants there are the greater the possibility of evolving vaccine resistant variants that will necessitate lockdowns until new vaccines are developed. The more unvaccinated persons in our parishes, our neighborhoods, and our state, the higher the likelihood of local surges and transmission of new variants from elsewhere.

Vaccination

We should promote vaccination for the sake of the unvaccinated as well as the safety of others and the community. In public I wear a tag from the Health Department (something like those given to promote voting) that says that I have been vaccinated.  It affirms to others that I have been vaccinated and that I am promoting a safe lifestyle of interacting with vaccinated people. It also allows me the opportunity to inquire about the vaccination status of others, and to distance myself from those who are unvaccinated.