LABOR DAY SURGE PROJECTIONS

Beginning with the actual new cases of the virus for July 9 (i.e. and average of the preceding seven days) projections were made for a 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, and 7% increase per day. Those projections and the ACTUAL cases (again an average of the seven preceding days) are given in the Table Below.  Yellow underline indicated the closest projection that falls below one of the percentages.

So for the most of the month either 5% or 6% per day projections comes close to the actual numbers. 

	3%	4%	5%	6%	7%	ACTUAL
9-Jul	20531	20531	20531	20531	20531	20531
10-Jul	21147	21352	21558	21763	21968	21382
11-Jul	21781	22206	22635	23069	23506	21305
12-Jul	22435	23095	23767	24453	25151	22731
13-Jul	23108	24018	24956	25920	26912	24202
14-Jul	23801	24979	26203	27475	28796	26720
15-Jul	24515	25978	27514	29124	30811	26780
16-Jul	25251	27017	28889	30871	32968	33994
17-Jul	26008	28098	30334	32723	35276	35275
18-Jul	26788	29222	31850	34687	37745	31512
19-Jul	27592	30391	33443	36768	40388	33937
20-Jul	28420	31607	35115	38974	43215	37900
21-Jul	29272	32871	36871	41312	46240	42112
22-Jul	30150	34186	38714	43791	49477	44103
23-Jul	31055	35553	40650	46419	52940	55626
24-Jul	31987	36975	42682	49204	56646	57783
25-Jul	32946	38454	44817	52156	60611	50918
26-Jul	33935	39992	47057	55285	64854	55366
27-Jul	34953	41592	49410	58602	69393	63355
28-Jul	36001	43256	51881	62119	74251	66841
29-Jul	37081	44986	54475	65846	79448	69066
30-Jul	38194	46785	57199	69796	85010	85767
31-Jul	39340	48657	60059	73984	90961	88276
1-Aug	40520	50603	63061	78423	97328	77350
2-Aug	41735	52627	66215	83129	104141	81856
3-Aug	42987	54732	69525	88116	111431	92698
4-Aug	44277	56922	73002	93403	119231	95562
5-Aug	45605	59198	76652	99008	127577	96301
6-Aug	46973	61566	80484	104948	136507	119410
15-Aug	61290	87628	124857	177308	250963
1-Sep	101303	170691	286175	477449	792746
6-Sep	117437	207672	365240	638934	1111867

If the somewhere between 5% and 6% more new cases per day holds, at Labor day the national new cases will be between 365,240 to 638,934 new cases per day which would exceed the highest case numbers in January of this year.

Remember that these are national projections. Things are going to get very bad in the South and other places that have many unvaccinated people. That is going to spread to places like Ohio though at a lesser rate (right now our rate per day is closer to 5%)  

Since many but not all of the elderly have been vaccinated the hospitalization and death rates are not going up as fast. (The hospitalization rates are going up at about 3% nationally)

So it is going to get bad elsewhere before it gets bad here in Ohio; however all of this is going to happen very quickly. So it is going to be bad here in Ohio about Labor Day or shortly thereafter.

The Delta variant is causing more noticeable infections in children and more hospitalizations in children. It is also causing worse cases (e.g. hospitalization and ICU use) in younger people.

While vaccines offer strong protection again hospitalization and death, they don't put a shield around the vaccinated person.  The quicker and stronger Delta variant is producing more symptomatic cases than the original virus. That also seems to mean that vaccinated persons can pass on the virus to other people.  So unvaccinated persons and those with vulnerable immune systems can get the virus during the asymptomatic phase of a brief infection of a vaccinated person.

We don't know how quickly this will burn itself through the population because we don't know what actions people, businesses, and government will take. This is particularly problematic since this will happen very quickly.

IF ONE WANTS TO AVOID THE VIRUS AND THE POSSIBLITY OF LONG TERM COVID OR HOSPITALIZATION AND DEATH IT IS BEST TO:

NOT ONLY GET THE VACCINE 

BUT ALSO TO SOCIAL ISOLATE FROM AS MANY PERSONS AS POSSIBLE.

AND USE MASKS AND OBSERVE SOCIAL DISTANCING WHEN NECESSARY TO INTERACTION WITH ANYONE OUTSIDE ONE'S ISOLATION PARTNERS.