Cleveland Commonweal Local Community Network

 At the end of my May 26th post Will Pandemic New Cases Decline Continue?     I presented the table below of various projections for the future based up 2%, 1.5%,1%, 0,5% and 0% declines, The ACTUAL CASES are given at the right. Essentially the decline was going at a rate better than 2% up until June 15th when it dramatically slowed into a first a plateau before July 4th and now an upswing. The upswing in yellow has already placed us where we would have been if the rate had been 0.5%. Both the projections and actual data are seven day averages.  Since we are already getting up into the 30000s this week, on August 1st we will likely be at the worst case scenario, namely no decline from May 15th.  In other words relying on the vaccine alone will not be sufficient to bring virus cases down.  It is the number of unvaccinated that counts. FUTURE PANDEMIC DECLINE PROJECTIONS   Pandemic Incidence Decline Projection at Rate of ACTUAL Date

Below is an excellent article that gives the big picture of the pandemic but with many important details The original article is a delightful, witty interview with this doctor. I have summarized it to facilitate wide sharing with others. My comments are in italics. The Doctor Who Eliminated Smallpox Says COVID-19 Is Here to Stay 1.  TOTAL DEATHS  U.S. COVID-19 deaths will soon surpass the domestic toll from the great influenza of a century ago. This despite very effective vaccines. In other words we cannot wait for vaccines. When a pandemic strikes we must be prepared without vaccines. 2.  UNLIKELY TO BE ERADICATED  A virus that infects multiple species, animals as well as humans, and has multiple new variants (some of which could re-infect people) is unlikely to be eradicated. Twelve different species have been infected with COVID-19. Yellow fever has not been eradicated because monkeys get it. 3. QUICKER  RESPONSE  It took over 200 years after there was a vaccine before smallpox was