CLEVELAND CLC REOPENING ON HOLD

 At the end of my May 26th post

Will Pandemic New Cases Decline Continue?   

I presented the table below of various projections for the future based up 2%, 1.5%,1%, 0,5% and 0% declines, The ACTUAL CASES are given at the right. Essentially the decline was going at a rate better than 2% up until June 15th when it dramatically slowed into a first a plateau before July 4th and now an upswing. The upswing in yellow has already placed us where we would have been if the rate had been 0.5%. Both the projections and actual data are seven day averages.  Since we are already getting up into the 30000s this week, on August 1st we will likely be at the worst case scenario, namely no decline from May 15th.  In other words relying on the vaccine alone will not be sufficient to bring virus cases down.  It is the number of unvaccinated that counts.

FUTURE PANDEMIC DECLINE PROJECTIONS
Pandemic Incidence Decline Projection at Rate of						ACTUAL
Date	April 10 2%	15-May	15-May	15-May	15-May	CASES
		1.50%	1%	0.50%	0%
15-May	36090	35788	35788	35788	35788	35788
1-Jun	25599	27679	30167	32865	35788	16040
15-Jun	19293	22401	26208	30637	35788	12482
4-Jul	13143	16809	21652	27854	35788	11593
15-Jul	10524	14235	19386	26360	35788	26780
1-Aug	7465	11009	16341	24207	35788
15-Aug	5626	8910	14196	22566	35788
5-Sep	3607	6891	11380	20723	35788
15-Sep	3007	5577	10396	19319	35788
1-Oct	2221	4379	8852	17830	35788
15-Oct	1640	3544	7690	16621	35788
1-Nov	1164	2741	6482	15264	35788
15-Nov	877	2218	5631	14229	35788

Will we end up stagnating somewhere in the 35000 cases per day area into the fall?  If a lot of people decide to get the vaccine, could we resume a 2% per day drop like we were doing?  On the hand this could be the start of a surge that will last through the fall into the winter and only diminish next spring.

I can usually detect a surge because it assumes a steady upward rate for about two weeks, then if that predicts the next two weeks, the rate up like the rate down usually remains stable for many not only weeks but months.

WE HAVE HAD A STEADY UPWARD RATE NOW FOR ABOUT A WEEK.  EXPECT AN UPDATE AROUND AUGUST 1ST OR SEPTEMBER 15TH WHETHER OR NOT WE ARE IN ANOTHER SURGE.

Right now we need to put on hold any reopening this fall until it becomes clear whether we are on an upswing, a plateau or are resuming a decline.